The new set of rumors doing rounds in the tech journals/blogs yesterday got me to write this post (which I wanted to write before Jan1, so that I could title it as my predictions for 2011 :)
A lot has been written and spoken about The Rise of The Android OS, and to some extent about the Windows Mobile 7. The growth of all non-iOS platforms/devices had the luxury of being shielded by iPhone-AT&T exclusivity, which was good enough for people to forgo the iPhone for a better network (most often claimed to be Verizon).
Now, with the impending launch of the iPhone on the "best" American wireless carrier, I predict the tsunami of iOS devices, since there are millions of wireless consumers who have been satisfying their urge to have a smartphone by going in for the only options available on Verizon, which happened to be Androids!
A colleague of mine, who is an iPhone developer who hates ATT more than loving iPhone, has been waiting for an iPhone on Verizon, ever since the days of iPhone 3G! And most other people who didn't make the switch to AT&T for the phone, are also stuck with their respective carriers just because of their contracts and family plans.
I'd love to wait and watch if there'll be a mass exodus (in spite of the contracts?), or if I'll be a part of it or if it'll be a slow and steady trickle of ATT subscribers moving to VZN!
Or who knows, there's just so much demand for iPhone on Verizon, that there is no need of an exodus, it may just be a "rinse and repeat" cycle of the ATT growth story. This will be bad for ATT and VZN subscribers, with both the networks competing for the most screwed up performance. But more iOS devices = better for iOS developer and Apple :)
Exodus will be bad for ATT, good for the 'ATT consumers' because of reduced strain on the network.
Exodus or not, Verizon, which has been basking under the glory of "awesome" wireless performance (due to the data sipping androids), will be tested for real this time, with the data gobbling iPhones. And the sales of iPhones will definitely slow down the growth of good Android smartphones which have been selling for $199.
It'd be amazing to see iPhone available on every single carrier in US (at which point, AT&T will stop bullshitting its subscribers that the iPhone cannot be unlocked), which is when the real growth rates between iPhone and Android can be compared.
But for now, the pie chart for the mobile devices in US for 2011 is clear, a huge chunk will go to iOS (because of the Verizon option), Android will survive only on the heroics of the awesome Nexus S unless the current $200 Androids show up with some steep discounts (or on the dumb consumers buying anything that has the Android label on it) or if/when there are more awesome Android phones coming out in the future. WinMo7, will need to up the ante, just having a high contrast Super AMOLED screen in some devices will not help (but there UI seems to be much better than Android)
The market share may further tilt in favor of iOS Devices once there is no kind of exclusivity with any carrier, and its available on all the big4 carriers (ATT, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint)
(RIM? It should get ready to be eaten/devoured by Android and WinMo7, "most" developers hate to develop apps for Blackberrys)
A lot has been written and spoken about The Rise of The Android OS, and to some extent about the Windows Mobile 7. The growth of all non-iOS platforms/devices had the luxury of being shielded by iPhone-AT&T exclusivity, which was good enough for people to forgo the iPhone for a better network (most often claimed to be Verizon).
Now, with the impending launch of the iPhone on the "best" American wireless carrier, I predict the tsunami of iOS devices, since there are millions of wireless consumers who have been satisfying their urge to have a smartphone by going in for the only options available on Verizon, which happened to be Androids!
A colleague of mine, who is an iPhone developer who hates ATT more than loving iPhone, has been waiting for an iPhone on Verizon, ever since the days of iPhone 3G! And most other people who didn't make the switch to AT&T for the phone, are also stuck with their respective carriers just because of their contracts and family plans.
I'd love to wait and watch if there'll be a mass exodus (in spite of the contracts?), or if I'll be a part of it or if it'll be a slow and steady trickle of ATT subscribers moving to VZN!
Or who knows, there's just so much demand for iPhone on Verizon, that there is no need of an exodus, it may just be a "rinse and repeat" cycle of the ATT growth story. This will be bad for ATT and VZN subscribers, with both the networks competing for the most screwed up performance. But more iOS devices = better for iOS developer and Apple :)
Exodus will be bad for ATT, good for the 'ATT consumers' because of reduced strain on the network.
Exodus or not, Verizon, which has been basking under the glory of "awesome" wireless performance (due to the data sipping androids), will be tested for real this time, with the data gobbling iPhones. And the sales of iPhones will definitely slow down the growth of good Android smartphones which have been selling for $199.
It'd be amazing to see iPhone available on every single carrier in US (at which point, AT&T will stop bullshitting its subscribers that the iPhone cannot be unlocked), which is when the real growth rates between iPhone and Android can be compared.
But for now, the pie chart for the mobile devices in US for 2011 is clear, a huge chunk will go to iOS (because of the Verizon option), Android will survive only on the heroics of the awesome Nexus S unless the current $200 Androids show up with some steep discounts (or on the dumb consumers buying anything that has the Android label on it) or if/when there are more awesome Android phones coming out in the future. WinMo7, will need to up the ante, just having a high contrast Super AMOLED screen in some devices will not help (but there UI seems to be much better than Android)
The market share may further tilt in favor of iOS Devices once there is no kind of exclusivity with any carrier, and its available on all the big4 carriers (ATT, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint)
(RIM? It should get ready to be eaten/devoured by Android and WinMo7, "most" developers hate to develop apps for Blackberrys)
No comments:
Post a Comment